As I said in my recent review of the Singapore Grand Prix, however much it may appear otherwise F1 can never be said to be predictable. And indeed that Singapore weekend confirmed as much. That even in an age of apparently resolute single car dominance shocks can and do still happen in this game.
With this, there are opportunities for the betting F1 fan. To take extreme examples I’ve heard anecdotes of those who made killings on betting on Jenson Button in the Brawn to claim the 2009 title and even on Ayrton Senna’s debut crown in 1988, by placing their stakes at the right moment. While to take the ultimate example I’m told you could have got odds of 250/1 on a Pastor Maldonado win at the start of the 2012 Spanish Grand Prix weekend…
Is The Betting Value With Rosberg?
But of course even with the Singapore round and its outcome that nearly no one anticipated, Lewis Hamilton’s dominance of this 2015 F1 season is reflected in the William Hill Formula One betting odds. Even after his Singapore non-finish his odds of winning the drivers’ title are still at 1/6. Though you may consider that something close to free money even if the potential winnings are slim. Interestingly, if you fancy an upset, William Hill reckons Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel (at 7/1) has a better chance at snatching the title away from Lewis than does the other Mercedes pilot Nico Rosberg (who is 12/1).
In a similar vein Lewis to win the Japanese Grand Prix in Suzuka this weekend is also odds-on at 5/6. And instead the betting value might be with his team mate.
Rosberg’s odds to win this weekend could be considered as generous, at 7/2. Many expect Mercedes to bounce back in Suzuka after its Singapore struggle – given the circuit layout and tyre compounds will be much more to its liking – and Nico claimed pole position here last year (indeed he’s 10/3 to repeat that feat). He’s also promised to attack for the remainder of the season given he now has little to lose.
While at least part of the Singapore brew was that Ferrari is thought to have improved a lot on its engine and chassis and so Vettel’s odds to win in Japan at 10/3 may tempt. As perhaps may Kimi Raikkonen’s at 14/1. Seb too has an amazing record at Suzuka of four wins in the last six visits, albeit all in a Red Bull. If you fancy hedging your non-Lewis bets then you can get 6/5 on a German winner this time.
What If The Forecast Rain Arrives?
Additionally rain, perhaps vast quantities of it, is forecast for at least some of the weekend, which could open the possibility of outside bets for the win as well as to get on the podium. Red Bull also has improved a lot lately, and as mentioned has a strong record at Suzuka where the fast turns suit the RB11. Furthermore any wet conditions should go some way to negate its famous horsepower deficit as well as further benefit the car’s fine handling. Daniel Ricciardo is a tempting 25/1 to win in Japan while Daniil Kvyat, who has been in good form and was unlucky in Singapore, is 50/1 to win and a full 9/1 to end up on the podium.
Similar considerations may apply to a wet qualifying session, and Kvyat is a full 80/1 to claim the pole…
As for an even more extreme outside bet, Toro Rosso also has a good chassis and its young gun drivers can be expected to attack whatever the weather, and both drivers are at 40/1 to finish in the top three.
Do check out the range of William Hill Formula One betting odds it is offering for the Japanese Grand Prix and for the 2015 F1 drivers’ championship. All odds quoted in this article were accurate on the William Hill website as of 1245 BST on 23 September 2015.